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Philip Meissner - Hongju SHIN
• What did he study? One concept/idea
Philip Meissner studied how managers make strategic decisions under uncertainty and how methods such as scenario-based planning and the integration of psychological factors (emotions, biases, and AI reliance) influence decision quality.
• Why interesting for a company?
Companies operate in uncertain and volatile environments (e.g., digital disruption, geopolitical instability, sustainability pressures).
Understanding how biases, emotions, and unconscious values distort decisions is essential for avoiding costly mistakes.
Tools like scenario planning or balanced AI use help firms anticipate future challenges and avoid overconfidence, leading to more resilient strategies.
• What did he identify? What is his main result?
He identified that hidden values, emotions (anger, happiness), and cultural differences systematically influence managers’ choices.
He found that AI support improves decision-making only if managers do not over-rely on it; otherwise, creativity and judgment decline.
He demonstrated that scenario-based planning improves strategic quality by forcing managers to consider multiple futures, rather than relying on a single forecast.
• Managerial implication?
Adopt scenario planning: Firms should not rely on one “best guess” about the future but explore multiple plausible scenarios.
Train managers in psychological awareness: Awareness of emotions, biases, and hidden values improves the objectivity of strategic choices.
Use AI as a partner, not a replacement: Managers should critically evaluate AI recommendations, combining them with human judgment.
Build psychological capital in teams: Encouraging optimism, resilience, and self-efficacy leads to stronger and more adaptive decisions.
• Boundary condition?
Meissner shows that the effectiveness of these approaches depends on context:
Emotional state: Happiness can moderate cultural biases, while anger can distort decisions.
Organizational culture: Firms with rigid, hierarchical cultures may not benefit fully from scenario planning, as it requires openness and creativity.
AI reliance: The benefits of AI decision support depend on managers’ willingness to remain engaged instead of delegating blindly.
Environmental uncertainty: Scenario planning is most effective in highly uncertain, dynamic environments, less so in stable industries.
• What did he study? One concept/idea
Philip Meissner studied how managers make strategic decisions under uncertainty and how methods such as scenario-based planning and the integration of psychological factors (emotions, biases, and AI reliance) influence decision quality.
• Why interesting for a company?
Companies operate in uncertain and volatile environments (e.g., digital disruption, geopolitical instability, sustainability pressures).
Understanding how biases, emotions, and unconscious values distort decisions is essential for avoiding costly mistakes.
Tools like scenario planning or balanced AI use help firms anticipate future challenges and avoid overconfidence, leading to more resilient strategies.
• What did he identify? What is his main result?
He identified that hidden values, emotions (anger, happiness), and cultural differences systematically influence managers’ choices.
He found that AI support improves decision-making only if managers do not over-rely on it; otherwise, creativity and judgment decline.
He demonstrated that scenario-based planning improves strategic quality by forcing managers to consider multiple futures, rather than relying on a single forecast.
• Managerial implication?
Adopt scenario planning: Firms should not rely on one “best guess” about the future but explore multiple plausible scenarios.
Train managers in psychological awareness: Awareness of emotions, biases, and hidden values improves the objectivity of strategic choices.
Use AI as a partner, not a replacement: Managers should critically evaluate AI recommendations, combining them with human judgment.
Build psychological capital in teams: Encouraging optimism, resilience, and self-efficacy leads to stronger and more adaptive decisions.
• Boundary condition?
Meissner shows that the effectiveness of these approaches depends on context:
Emotional state: Happiness can moderate cultural biases, while anger can distort decisions.
Organizational culture: Firms with rigid, hierarchical cultures may not benefit fully from scenario planning, as it requires openness and creativity.
AI reliance: The benefits of AI decision support depend on managers’ willingness to remain engaged instead of delegating blindly.
Environmental uncertainty: Scenario planning is most effective in highly uncertain, dynamic environments, less so in stable industries.